Summary: Bitcoin trades near $61,336 with 50% supply underwater. This tutorial covers CryptoQuant bottom signals, technical levels, and step-by-step MT4 backtesting with equity curve export.




Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $61,336 as of June 11, 2026, after hitting a fresh bear market low of $59,000 on June 10. The cryptocurrency has dropped over 24% from its mid-May high of $82,000, with more than 50% of circulating supply now held at a loss—a level not seen since the FTX collapse in November 2022.

On-Chain Bottom Signals

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin currently trades only 9% above its realized price of $53,600. Historically, this valuation level correlates with bear market bottoms. However, total demand for BTC collapsed to -652,000 BTC last week—the largest drop since January 2022. ETF purchases are contracting at the fastest rate since launch, with 30-day ETF demand in unprecedented negative territory.

Realized losses over the past 30 days stand at 187,000 BTC, far below the 400,000 BTC recorded in February 2026 or the 1.2 million BTC seen at the FTX cycle bottom. This indicates capitulation has not yet peaked, suggesting sellers still remain in the market.

Technical Levels to Watch

  • Resistance: $62,800-$63,500 (immediate), $64,000-$64,500 (strong)

  • Support: $60,700-$61,000 (first), $59,000 (critical), $57,800 (next)


    • The Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 9—“Extreme Fear”. Glassnode reports that over 95% of recent buyers are now in unrealized losses, a reading historically associated with capitulation phases.

    Step-by-Step MT4 Backtesting for Crypto Strategies

  • <strong>Load historical data</strong>: Tools > Options > Charts. Set “Max bars in history” to 500,000.

  • <strong>Import tick data</strong>: Download BTCUSD historical data from HistData.com. Go to Tools > History Center > BTCUSD > Import.

  • <strong>Run Strategy Tester</strong>: Control+R > Select EA > Choose “Every tick” > Set date range (e.g., May 1-June 11, 2026).

  • <strong>Export account history to equity curve</strong>: After backtest, right-click Account History > Save as Detailed Report (HTML). Open in Excel, create cumulative profit line chart to visualize drawdowns.

  • <strong>Fix EA common errors</strong>: If “EA loading failed” appears, verify file is in MQL4 > Experts folder. For DLL errors, check “Allow DLL imports” in Tools > Options > Expert Advisors.


    • MT4 Data Export and VPS Setup

    Export MT4 data via Tools > History Center > Export as CSV for external analysis. For 24/7 automated trading, rent a Forex VPS (starting at $5/month from Contabo or MQL5 Cloud). Install MT4, copy your EA, and configure DLL permissions. Maintain ping under 10ms to crypto liquidity providers.

    Key Event to Watch

    All eyes are on the FOMC meeting scheduled for June 16-17. Wirex trading head Yves Renno notes that Powell‘s tone will determine whether Bitcoin rebounds to $68,000-72,000 or breaks below $60,000.

    Reference: CryptoQuant on-chain data (June 10, 2026), Glassnode report, TradingView BTC/USD charts, FX168 news, MetaTrader Help Desk.