Summary: Professional trader James Harwood filters the highest-conviction signals from the QT data. He explains why he's short EURUSD and BTCUSD while cautioning against chasing USDJPY longs near extremes. A contrarian take on GOLD's divergence.




Data source: FxearQT: Complete FX 10 Pairs Technical Indicator Analysis, 2026-06-23 01:30.

I have reviewed the latest multi-symbol data report published by FxearQT. The dominance of the US dollar is the clearest macro theme. After the Fed's hawkish pivot and the DXY reaching a 13-month high, my focus is entirely on filtering high-probability setups that offer a favorable balance of trend, momentum, and risk-reward.

Below are the signals that stand out to me today.

EURUSD: Short Opportunity with a Key Fibonacci Target



This is the cleanest setup in my view. The triple-timeframe bearish alignment is decisive. Daily, 4H, and 1H moving averages are all in a bearish configuration.

  • Current Price (Bid): 1.13805

  • Spread: 21.0 points

  • Daily Trend: Bearish (MA20 < MA60)

  • Daily RSI: 29.15 (Oversold)

  • Divergence: None

  • Daily ATR: 626 points

  • Distance to 4H High/Low: Price is between the 20-period high (1.14382) and low (1.13237). It is located near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.13945.


  • The RSI is in oversold territory, which might give some traders pause. However, I see this as a feature of a strong downtrend, not a reason to fade it. The data suggests we are in a "trend is your friend" scenario.

    My recommendation is to sell short.
  • Recommended Entry: 1.13945

  • Stop Loss: 1.14571

  • Take Profit: 1.13005

  • Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.50:1 (626-point risk vs. 940-point reward)


  • Personal View: The report suggests waiting for a bounce to resistance. I agree. I am looking for a break of the 1.13805 level to confirm the next leg lower. The 1.13005 target aligns with the next key support and offers a good risk-reward ratio in this strong bearish trend.

    USDJPY: A Trade I am Watching, Not Chasing



    This is the market's consensus trade. JPY net shorts are at an 18-month high, and retail bearishness on the yen is at 95%.

  • Current Price (Bid): 161.649

  • Spread: 26.0 points

  • Daily Trend: Bullish (MA20 > MA60)

  • Daily RSI: 71.44 (Strong)

  • Divergence: None

  • Daily ATR: 619 points

  • Distance to 4H High/Low: Price is very close to the 4H high at 161.936.


  • The report's recommendation is to buy on a pullback.
  • Recommended Entry: 161.514

  • Stop Loss: 160.771

  • Take Profit: 162.628

  • Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.50:1


  • Personal View: I am cautious here. While the trend is unquestionably bullish, the RSI is near the 75 threshold, and the price is at highs. The risk-reward ratio is okay, but the entry is not ideal. I will keep this on my watchlist and look for a deeper pullback to the 161.20 area, which is closer to the 4H low, before considering a long position. The crowded trade makes me nervous about a potential squeeze.

    AUDUSD: A Divergence That Caught My Eye



    AUDUSD shows a clear bullish divergence on the daily chart, but the trend is still bearish.

  • Current Price (Bid): 0.68928

  • Spread: 24.0 points

  • Daily Trend: Bearish (MA20 < MA60)

  • Daily RSI: 30.07 (Weak)

  • Divergence: Bullish Divergence Detected

  • Daily ATR: 524 points

  • Distance to 4H High/Low: Price is very close to the 4H low at 0.68742.


  • The report suggests selling at a resistance level.
  • Recommended Entry: 0.69085

  • Stop Loss: 0.69609

  • Take Profit: 0.68299

  • Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.50:1


  • Personal View: The divergence is a clear warning signal. Downside momentum is weakening. While the trend is still bearish, chasing a short trade near the recent low feels like poor risk management. I would rather wait for a stronger bounce toward the 0.6960 resistance or a clear breakdown below the 0.6870 support. A short trade from the current level is too risky.

    GOLD: The Most Interesting Signal in the Report



    Gold is the most contested asset in the data. The sentiment is an extreme 92% long, which is a stark contrarian signal. However, the technicals show a bullish divergence.

  • Current Price (Bid): 4035.20

  • Spread: 65.0 points

  • Daily Trend: Bearish (MA20 < MA60)

  • Daily RSI: 32.77 (Weak)

  • Divergence: Bullish Divergence Detected

  • Daily ATR: 12,054 points (Stop-loss capped at 2,500 points for this analysis)

  • Distance to 4H High/Low: Price is near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (4050.39) and is relatively close to the 4H low (3959.02).


  • The report's recommendation is to sell short.
  • Recommended Entry: 4047.25

  • Stop Loss: 4072.25

  • Take Profit: 4009.75

  • Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.50:1


  • Personal View: This is a battle between extreme sentiment and a potential shift in momentum. The retail data tells me the market is very crowded on the long side. I think the bearish macro theme is still dominant. I will prioritize the sentiment signal. I am looking for a drop below the key 4,035 support. If that happens, I will consider a short trade targeting 4,000.

    BTCUSD: Strong Sell Signal in a Crypto Winter



    The macro headwinds for BTC are clear: Fed hawkishness, a strong dollar, and continuous ETF outflows.

  • Current Price (Bid): 60552.15

  • Spread: 5000.0 points

  • Daily Trend: Bearish (MA20 < MA60)

  • Daily RSI: 29.59 (Weak, threshold 80/20)

  • Divergence: None

  • Daily ATR: 2115.41 points

  • Distance to 4H High/Low: Price is extremely close to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (60523.96), with the 4H low at 58093.75.


  • The report recommends a short entry.
  • Recommended Entry: 60523.96

  • Stop Loss: 61581.66

  • Take Profit: 58937.40

  • Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.50:1


  • Personal View: The trend is down. The volume is weak. With the 60,000 level now acting as resistance, I see no reason to go against the flow. The ETF outflows are a major factor, and until we see a reversal in that dynamic, BTC is a sell on strength.

    Other Majors



    GBPUSD: Triple bearish. Short at 1.32093, stop at 1.32914, target 1.30861.

    USDCAD: Bullish trend with a bearish divergence warning. The ATR ratio is 1.00, so it's a standard setup. Long at 1.41857, stop at 1.41250, target 1.42766.

    NZDUSD: Another strong bearish setup with an oversold RSI. Short at 0.56605, stop at 0.57084, target 0.55886.

    USDCHF: Bullish, but I am concerned about the bearish divergence. Long at 0.80973.

    EURGBP: A neutral setup. The report suggests a short.

    Final Thoughts on Key Events



    The PCE data is already behind us. The market's focus is now squarely on the upcoming US non-farm payrolls report on July 3rd. Until that data comes in, the path of least resistance for the US dollar remains higher.

    Data Source: FxearQT: Complete FX 10 Pairs Technical Indicator Analysis, 2026-06-23 01:30.
    First published at FXEAR.com. Exclusive content, unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

    Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis. It is not investment advice. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies involves significant risk. Please manage your own risk.