FxearQT Daily Trading Opportunity Analysis: 10 Forex Pairs Under the Shadow of NFP July 2, 2026
Data source: FxearQT: Complete 10-species indicator technical data analysis, 2026-07-02 11:59 UTC+8. The data comes from the MultiSymbol_Report.txt technical indicator analysis report.
Tonight's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is the biggest variable in the market. It is expected to be released at 20:30 Beijing time, with the market expecting about 159,000 new jobs, compared to the previous value of 122,000. The weaker-than-expected ADP data (98,000 vs. 119,000) has already sounded the alarm for the dollar bulls . At this sensitive node, I have combined the multi-timeframe EMA trends, RSI momentum, and ATR volatility from the report to lay out a complete trading roadmap for everyone.
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1. EURUSD: Three-cycle bearish共振, $1.14 becomes the line of life and death
Current Price: 1.13814 | Spread: 20 pips | Daily Trend: Bearish | RSI(14): 33.67
From my review, the bearish structure of EURUSD is very solid. The daily EMA20 (1.14706) and EMA60 (1.15687) are forming a death cross and diverging downward, and both the 4H and 1H levels are locked below the EMA60. This is a standard strong bearish arrangement. The daily RSI of 33.67 is in a weak zone but has not yet reached the oversold threshold of 30.
Resistance & Support:
Trading Plan:
Personal Judgment: The report suggests shorting near 1.1390, but I want to remind everyone that the price is currently only 205 pips away from the 4H low of 1.13608, which is an extremely close distance. Aggressively chasing shorts here has a poor risk-reward ratio. If the NFP data disappoints, a rebound to 1.1420 is very likely to squeeze shorts . It is safer to wait for a pullback to the 1.1405-1.1420 range before shorting.
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2. GBPUSD: Bottom divergence appears, the 1.3300 resistance zone is difficult to break
Current Price: 1.32857 | Spread: 24 pips | Daily Trend: Bearish | RSI(14): 45.16
GBPUSD is more tangled than EURUSD. Although the daily and 4H levels are still bearish, the 1H has already turned bullish, and more importantly, the daily chart has formed a bottom divergence (price made a new low but RSI did not). This means the downward momentum is weakening. However, I have repeatedly verified that GBPUSD is currently trapped between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs (1.3350-1.3400) below, and the UK's political vacuum is limiting the upside .
Resistance & Support:
Trading Plan:
Personal Judgment: I differ from the report's "short" view. Given the daily bottom divergence, blindly shorting near 1.33 is like trying to pick a falling knife. My suggestion is to wait for a breakout confirmation. If the 4H closes above 1.3300 and the NFP is weak, consider chasing the breakout. Conversely, if the price is rejected at resistance, a short near 1.3350 would be a safer high-probability trade.
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3. USDJPY: Approaching 163, intervention risk is an "unexploded bomb"
Current Price: 162.447 | Spread: 27 pips | Daily Trend: Bullish | RSI(14): 76.96 (Overbought)
The trend of USDJPY is the clearest. Three-cycle bullish resonance, price stands firmly above all major moving averages, and the daily RSI of 76.96 is in an overbought zone but is persistently "dull" in a strong trend. From a technical perspective, USDJPY has a clear upward target. I see that the daily chart pivot point is at 162.4, and the upper resistance is at 163.74 .
Resistance & Support:
Trading Plan:
Key Risk: UBS warned that the 163-165 range is an area where long positions are heavily concentrated. Once it breaks, a large number of stop-losses may be triggered, causing the exchange rate to surge . However, the risk of official intervention is also rising in this range. From my point of view, before the price breaks 163, I prefer to trade long on dips, watching the 162.20-162.40 support zone.
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4. AUDUSD: The "commodity currency" was beaten back to its original shape, but the RSI is nearing oversold levels
Current Price: 0.68916 | Spread: 25 pips | Daily Trend: Bearish | RSI(14): 32.36
AUDUSD is the weakest among the major currencies. Three-cycle bearish resonance, plus the recent weakness in oil and iron ore, is a double whammy. From my review, the 0.6903 pivot level is a key short-term fulcrum . However, the daily RSI of 32.36 is already very close to the 30 oversold line, and the price is very close to the 4H low (0.68641).
Resistance & Support:
Trading Plan:
Personal Judgment: I suggest not being overly bearish at this level. The RSI is oversold, and the price is close to the support zone. Pursuing shorts here is like driving into a low-lying area in a rainstorm. If the 4H candlestick shows a reversal pattern (like a hammer), it may be a better idea to try a short-term long position.
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5. USDCAD: Dual support from oil prices and the dollar, but the RSI is soaring
Current Price: 1.42159 | Spread: 31 pips | Daily Trend: Bullish | RSI(14): 77.26 (Overbought)
The trend of USDCAD is also a three-cycle bullish resonance, strongly supported by the decline in crude oil prices. The pivot point is at 1.4211, with the upper resistance seeing 1.4316 . However, the daily RSI of 77.26 is in the overbought zone, which is a hidden danger for chasing longs.
Resistance & Support:
Trading Plan:
Personal Judgment: I agree with the long direction, but the overbought RSI makes me cautious. There may be a pullback before NFP to digest the overbought conditions. Waiting for a pullback to the 1.4170-1.4200 area for a long entry would offer a better risk-reward ratio.
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6. NZDUSD: 0.5660 is a fragile line of defense
Current Price: 0.56733 | Spread: 28 pips | Daily Trend: Bearish | RSI(14): 35.30
NZDUSD's trend is similar to AUDUSD. It is under pressure from both the strong dollar and weak risk appetite. The 0.5670 pivot point is currently being tested . If this level breaks, the next support will be at 0.5619.
Resistance & Support:
Trading Plan:
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7. USDCHF: The pivot point is rising, targeting 0.81
Current Price: 0.80869 | Spread: 26 pips | Daily Trend: Bullish | RSI(14): 64.40
USDCHF is a three-cycle bullish resonance, and the daily RSI of 64.40 is in a strong zone but not overbought. The price is advancing steadily. The pivot point is at 0.8085-0.8095, and the upper resistance is at 0.8126-0.8148 .
Resistance & Support:
Trading Plan:
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8. XAUUSD: The "lifeblood" of $4000, the key is whether the NFP can save it
Current Price: 4069.95 | Spread: 61 pips | Daily Trend: Bearish | RSI(14): 36.08
Gold is the focus of tonight's event. The entire Q2 saw a 14% drop, the largest since 2013 . The technical structure is very fragile: daily and 4H are bearish, and although the 1H is bullish, it's hard to reverse the overall decline. The critical support is $3880. Once this level breaks, the next target could be $3700-3800 . However, the current price has rebounded to around $4070, and there is resistance near $4110 .
Resistance & Support:
Trading Plan (Short Plan):
Personal Judgment: Despite the bearish trend, the report's 2500-pip stop-loss is too tight for a product with an ATR of over 11,000 pips. I suggest that if you want to short gold, wait for a retest of the 4080-4100 resistance area, but set a wider stop-loss or wait for a break below the pivot point of 4035 before chasing the short. If the NFP is weak, gold may spike, but the fundamental backdrop of a strong dollar suggests "sell on rallies" above 4100 is the main theme .
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9. EURGBP: The strongest short in the cross pairs
Current Price: 0.85654 | Spread: 24 pips | Daily Trend: Bearish | RSI(14): 30.74
EURGBP is the most standard bearish structure in the whole table. Three-cycle bearish resonance, with the RSI at 30.74, just above the oversold threshold. The strong UK pound and weak euro pattern is continuing, but the short-term downside space is running out.
Resistance & Support:
Trading Plan:
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10. BTCUSD: Reclaims $60,000 but is not out of danger yet
Current Price: 61034.35 | Spread: 5000 pips | Daily Trend: Bearish | RSI(14): 38.02
BTC has recently rebounded back above the psychologically important $60,000 level, up about 3% in the past 24 hours . The daily RSI of 38.02 has moved out of the oversold zone, and the MACD has formed a golden cross on the 4-hour chart, which are positive signs . However, I see that the short-term EMA resistance is at 60,550-60,570, which is a tough nut to crack right now . Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, which is a major headwind .
Resistance & Support:
Trading Plan:
Personal Judgment: Although the report suggests shorting, I think the risks are high. BTC is currently at a critical inflection point. If it can confirm a close above $61,000, it could trigger a wave of short covering towards $68,000 . My personal view is to wait for the NFP data to be released. If the dollar weakens and the price breaks $61,000, you can consider chasing the long. Otherwise, wait for a pullback to the $58,800 support level to buy the dip.
Reference Source: Data from FxearQT technical indicator analysis report (MultiSymbol_Report.txt) 2026-07-02 11:59 UTC+8.
Original article first published at FXEAR.com