FXEAR Special: James Harwood's Daily Trading Opportunities Analysis – July 13, 2026
Data source: FxearQT: Complete Technical Indicator Analysis for 10 Forex Pairs, 2026-07-13 21:00.
The market is entering a critical week with US CPI and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony both landing tomorrow. I've spent the last few hours combing through the technicals to filter out the noise. Here are my highest-conviction setups for today.
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XAU/USD (GOLD) – The Standout Short
Current Bid: 4056.65 | Spread: 63.0 pips
I've been watching gold closely since last Friday's close around 4119. The breakdown below 4070 support was the confirmation I needed. Let me walk you through my reasoning.
The daily EMA20 sits at 4151.34, the EMA60 is all the way up at 4348.86 – that's a textbook bearish cross. The 4H EMA60 at 4105.67 is well below the 200 at 4225.97. Even the 1H EMA20 at 4075.01 is trading under the 1H EMA60 at 4092.02. Every timeframe I look at is pointing the same direction.
RSI(14) at 44.48 tells me there's still room to run – we're not oversold yet. The bearish divergence is the icing on the cake: price made a higher high but RSI failed to confirm it. That's classic exhaustion.
The Fibonacci 0.618 level sits at 4066.01, and we're trading right near it. The entry zone from the report is 4046.43 to 4066.87. I'll be looking for entries toward the upper end of that zone.
My trade plan:
One thing that bothers me – the ATR ratio is only 0.24, meaning the recommended stop is too tight for gold's normal volatility. I'll be scaling in with a wider stop around 4105, or reducing size to 70-80% of standard.
My view on the World Gold Council data: central bank buying remains strong, but in the short term, the market is pricing in geopolitical risk through oil – not gold. The Strait of Hormuz situation is pushing WTI higher, which feeds into inflation expectations and reinforces the Fed's higher-for-longer narrative. That's a negative for zero-yield assets like gold.
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USD/JPY – The Consensus Trade
Current Bid: 162.109 | Spread: 26.0 pips
This is the cleanest macro trade out there. Let me be direct – I've been long USDJPY since the 160 breakout, and this pullback is giving us another entry.
Daily EMA20 at 161.538 is above the EMA60 at 160.221 – that's a healthy bullish alignment. 4H EMA60 at 161.923 is also above the 200 at 161.022. The 1H has rolled over a bit, but that's just noise.
RSI(14) at 54.36 shows the trend has legs. The bearish divergence alert is worth noting – I'll admit that caught my eye. But when I look at the COT data showing JPY net shorts at a massive 123,778 contracts, and retail sentiment showing 88% short – that's not a setup I fight.
The Fibonacci 0.382 support sits at 162.151, which aligns with my entry zone of 161.853 to 162.365.
My trade plan:
Why I'm still bullish despite the Bank of Japan: The BOJ's verbal intervention is getting less effective with each attempt. They can jawbone all they want, but until they actually raise rates meaningfully, the yield gap will keep pushing USDJPY higher. Goldman Sachs calls this the best carry-trade environment in two decades – I agree.
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USD/CHF – The Hidden Gem
Current Bid: 0.80944 | Spread: 24.0 pips
This one is flying under the radar. I'm seeing a rare alignment: all three timeframes pointing long, with a bullish divergence to back it up.
Daily EMA20 at 0.80420 > EMA60 at 0.79624. 4H EMA60 at 0.80666 > EMA200 at 0.80106. 1H EMA20 at 0.80871 > EMA60 at 0.80772. Textbook.
RSI(14) at 60.45 is strong but not overbought – there's room above 70 before I'd worry. The bullish divergence is the kicker: price made a lower low but RSI held higher. That's the kind of signal that gets me excited.
The entry zone is 0.80804 to 0.81084. I'll enter at the lower end, around 0.80804.
My trade plan:
My contrarian take on the Swiss National Bank: The SNB has been quietly intervening to weaken the franc. Combined with the global carry trade narrative, CHF weakness is the path of least resistance. Geopolitical risk could trigger a safe-haven bounce, but I see that as a buying opportunity, not a reversal signal.
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EUR/USD – Short but Watch the Entry
Current Bid: 1.14262 | Spread: 20.0 pips
Three timeframes, all bearish. Daily EMA20 at 1.14468 < EMA60 at 1.15386. 4H EMA60 at 1.14238 < EMA200 at 1.14877. 1H EMA20 at 1.14170 < EMA60 at 1.14207.
RSI(14) at 41.36 is weak but not oversold. Bearish divergence confirms the downside bias.
Entry zone is 1.14098 to 1.14426. I'll short at the upper end, 1.14306.
My trade plan:
My personal view – and this contradicts the consensus slightly: HSBC is calling for USD strength, and I agree structurally. But I think EURUSD could see a short squeeze into the CPI print. The 1.1400 level has held multiple times. I'll wait for a bounce to 1.1430-1.1440 before pulling the trigger, rather than chasing it lower here.
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BTC/USD – High Risk, Short Bias
Current Bid: 62,880.05 | Spread: 5000.0 pips
I'll be honest – this is not a trade I'm comfortable with at standard size. But the setup is clear.
All three timeframes are bearish. The EMA20s are below the EMA60s across daily (62997.80 < 66074.86), 4H (63106.43 < 63785.67), and 1H (63349.27 < 63671.44). That's as clean a bearish alignment as you'll see.
The RSI at 53.63 suggests we're in a bearish trend with a counter-trend rally – that's a classic short setup.
My trade plan:
The critical technical fact: BTC has broken below its 200-week moving average (around 59,000-61,000) for the first time since 2015. That's a MAJOR technical event. The next real support is down at 54,000-54,900.
My personal take – different from the pure bears: I'm not saying Bitcoin goes to zero. But the macro correlation is undeniable now. The Strait of Hormuz conflict is driving oil higher, which feeds inflation expectations, which pressures rate-sensitive assets like Bitcoin. I'll short here, but I'm using a wider stop and smaller size than normal.
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GBP/USD – Wait for Clarity
Current Bid: 1.33919 | Spread: 23.0 pips
This one's a mess, and I'm not afraid to say it. Daily says bearish, 4H says bullish, 1H says bearish. That's the definition of a market without a clear direction.
The RSI at 57.29 is mildly bullish, but the bearish divergence is nagging at me. Price is sitting between the 4H high of 1.34504 and low of 1.33211.
My verdict: No trade here. I'll sit this one out and revisit if we get a clean break of either 1.3450 or 1.3320.
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Summary of My Top Picks for Today:
| Pair | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target | R/R |
|------|-----------|-------|------|--------|-----|
| XAUUSD | SHORT | 4066.01 | 4091.01 | 4028.51 | 1.50 |
| USDJPY | LONG | 162.151 | 161.141 | 163.666 | 1.50 |
| USDCHF | LONG | 0.80804 | 0.80269 | 0.81607 | 1.50 |
| EURUSD | SHORT | 1.14306 | 1.14935 | 1.13362 | 1.50 |
| BTCUSD | SHORT | 63026.14 | 64076.16 | 61451.11 | 1.50 |
Data source: FxearQT: Complete Technical Indicator Analysis for 10 Forex Pairs, 2026-07-13 21:00.
Disclaimer: This analysis represents my personal views based on the data available at the time of writing. Forex and cryptocurrency trading involve substantial risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. These are not financial recommendations – do your own research before entering any trade.
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