FXEAR Special: James Harwood's Trading Opportunities Analysis - USD/JPY, Gold & AUD/USD Lead the Way
Data source: FxearQT: Complete 10-Currency Technical Analysis, 2026-09-07 13:00 UTC+8.
Good morning traders, James Harwood here.
I've spent the last few hours going over the latest MT4 data across 10 major FX pairs and commodities. Let me cut straight to it: there are three setups that really stand out to me today — USD/JPY, Gold, and AUD/USD. I'll also touch on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, but fair warning, I'm not as excited about those.
Let's walk through my reasoning.
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The Big Picture
Before we get into specifics, I want to highlight what's driving the markets right now.
The US August NFP print came in at 162,000 — that's nearly triple the 56,000 expected. I've been trading long enough to know when a number like that moves the needle, and it certainly did. The September Fed rate hike probability jumped to roughly 60% immediately after the release.
But here's the twist: the dollar didn't really follow through with sustained strength. DXY is still hovering below 100. Why? Because the ECB is almost certainly hiking on Thursday, and the BoJ is pricing in a 75% probability of a September move. The rate differential story isn't as one-sided as it used to be.
And then there's the geopolitical overlay. The Strait of Hormuz situation is still bubbling — Iran has reportedly struck multiple vessels. Brent crude is sitting above $97. This is supporting gold and, ironically, giving the dollar a bit of a headache.
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My Top Signal: USD/JPY – Short
Current Bid: 156.034 | Spread: 20.0 pips
Let me be direct: this is the cleanest macro setup on the board right now.
Trend: Daily/4H/1H all bearish. EMA20 < EMA60 < EMA200 on all three timeframes. When I see that kind of alignment, it tells me the selling pressure is persistent.
RSI: 32.93 — firmly in bearish territory, though not yet oversold (the threshold is 25 for JPY pairs).
ATR: 1,140 pips. Volatility is normal, nothing extreme here.
The divergence signal: Price made a lower low, but RSI did not. That's a classic bullish divergence warning. I'll be honest — this makes me a little uncomfortable, even though I'm recommending a short. It means momentum is slowing. I'm keeping my stop tighter than I normally would.
My entry/exit plan:
Why I like it: The BoJ is widely expected to hike on September 18, with market pricing at roughly 75%. This is a consensus view across the street. Let me quote what I've been reading: "The yen's long-term structural undervaluation may just be beginning to correct."
That's a powerful statement from Goldman. When you combine that with the CFTC data showing JPY net shorts at -92,227 contracts — the largest short position across all major currencies — you've got a classic short squeeze setup waiting to happen.
My personal view (different from the screen): The screen says "strong trend" and recommends a full position. I'm a bit more cautious. That bullish divergence is real, and it's telling me the selling momentum is fading. I'm sizing this at 60% of my normal position, not 100%. And I'm watching 155.00 like a hawk. If we break below that, I'll add to the position. If we bounce, I'm out at the first sign of strength.
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My Second Signal: XAUUSD (Gold) – Long
Current Bid: 4397.76 | Spread: 67.0 pips
This one's tricky. The screen says "weak trend strength" but I actually think the risk/reward here is compelling.
Trend: Daily and 4H are bullish, but 1H is bearish. That tells me we're in a short-term pullback within a larger uptrend.
RSI: 52.31 — slightly bullish, nothing extreme.
ATR: 11,697 pips. Normal volatility for gold.
The setup: Price is sitting very close to the Fib 0.618 support at 4369.54, and the CCI on the 1H chart is at -144.15 — that's oversold territory. I've seen this pattern before: oversold condition near a major Fibonacci level often produces a decent bounce.
My entry/exit plan:
Why I like it: Look beyond the technicals for a second. The geopolitical situation is a mess. The Strait of Hormuz tensions aren't going away. Brent crude above $97 is a constant reminder that inflation pressures are still there.
And despite the NFP-fueled rate hike talk, gold hasn't collapsed. That tells me there's underlying demand. I've been following the central bank buying narrative closely, and nothing I've seen lately suggests that story is changing.
My personal view (different from the screen): The screen says "wait" because of the narrow stop-loss ratio. I actually disagree — I think the stop is too tight but that's a system rule, not a market reality. I'm comfortable with a wider stop around 4350, which gives the trade more breathing room. Gold is volatile, and tight stops get hunted during geopolitical headlines. If I'm taking this trade, I'm scaling in slowly.
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My Third Signal: AUD/USD – Long
Current Bid: 0.72040 | Spread: 23.0 pips
Trend: Daily, 4H, and 1H are all bullish. EMA20 > EMA60 across the board. This is aligned.
RSI: 66.52 — firmly bullish, though not yet overbought (threshold is 70).
ATR: 439 pips. Normal.
My entry/exit plan:
Why I like it: This is a fundamental + technical combo play.
Technically, the triple-timeframe bullish alignment is hard to ignore. RSI is strong but not overextended.
Fundamentally, Goldman's call on EUR/AUD is worth paying attention to. They're recommending short EUR/AUD with a target of 1.5750. That's effectively a bullish AUD call. The logic is sound: Australia has the highest policy rate in the G10, a strong trade position in energy and metals, and decent fiscal resilience.
On top of that, China's CPI/PPI data is due September 9. If those numbers show improvement, the Aussie will get another leg up.
My personal view (different from the screen): The screen says "wait for a pullback" because price is only 93 pips from the 4H high. I agree in principle, but I'd argue that with momentum this strong, the pullback might not come. I'm placing a limit order at 0.7195 and if it doesn't fill, I'll chase it.
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Second-Tier Signals (Still Good, But Less Conviction)
EUR/USD – Long
Current Bid: 1.16105 | Spread: 20.0 pips
Trend: Triple-timeframe bullish. EMA20 > EMA60 across Daily, 4H, and 1H.
RSI: 55.30 — mildly bullish.
ATR: 463 pips.
My entry/exit plan:
The ECB is widely expected to hike by 25bp on Thursday. That's a known fact. The market has largely priced it in, which is why I'm not jumping on this trade with full size. I'll take the long, but I'm keeping my position small. The real risk is the CPI data on Friday — if that comes in hot, the dollar could rally and stop me out.
GBP/USD – Long
Current Bid: 1.35108 | Spread: 23.0 pips
Trend: Daily and 4H bullish, but 1H bearish — mixed message.
RSI: 49.92 — right at the 50 mid-line. No directional bias here.
ATR: 554 pips.
My entry/exit plan:
The BoE is still on the hawkish side, which is a positive. But the 1H bearish signal is a concern. And with the CFTC showing GBP net shorts at -49,575 contracts, there's a fair amount of negative positioning already baked in. I'm taking this trade, but it's my third preference behind USD/JPY and Gold.
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The Rest of the Pack
I'm not taking positions on USD/CAD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/GBP, or BTC/USD today. Let me explain why:
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Risk Warning and Final Thoughts
I want to end with three things I'm thinking about:
First, the CPI data on Friday is the big unknown. Everyone is waiting for that number. If it comes in above expectations, the Fed is almost certainly hiking in September, and the dollar will have a strong bid. That would hurt my gold and AUD positions. I'll be watching that closely and may reduce size before the release.
Second, the ECB meeting on Thursday. If they hike but give a dovish forward guidance, the euro could actually sell off. I'll be paying close attention to the language in Lagarde's press conference.
Third, the geopolitical risk. The Strait of Hormuz situation is not going away. Any escalation could send gold and oil surging, and that would work in favor of my gold long.
Bottom line: I like USD/JPY short, gold long, and AUD/USD long today. I'm sizing them conservatively because of the event risks later this week. Good luck, and stay safe out there.
Reference: Price data from FxearQT: Complete 10-Currency Technical Analysis, 2026-09-07 13:00.
First published on FXEAR.com. Original content, reproduction prohibited without authorization.
Disclaimer: This analysis is James Harwood's personal view and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and commodities involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.