Summary: US dollar remains bid after strong NFP. Analysis of four high-probability setups including EURUSD breakdown XAUUSD oversold bounce GBPJPY bullish flag and US500 technical pullback.




Market Summary: Dollar Strength Persists as CPI Looms

The US dollar held firm at two-month highs on Monday as traders continued digesting Friday‘s surprisingly strong jobs report. The 33.9k payrolls addition has pushed back expectations for a July rate cut. With limited US economic data today, technical drivers will dominate. Wednesday‘s CPI remains the next true test.

1. EURUSD: Dead Cat Bounce or Reversal? Sell the Recovery

Current Price: 1.0788
Direction: Bearish / Sell on Rallies
The pair briefly dipped below 1.0770 overnight before stabilizing. The 4-hour chart shows a clear breakdown below the ascending channel that had been in place since mid-May. Each bounce so far has been met with fresh selling pressure. The RSI remains below 40, indicating bearish momentum remains intact.
  • Resistance: 1.0820 (former channel support), 1.0855

  • Support: 1.0765 (session low), 1.0700 (psychological)

  • Strategy: Look for intraday moves toward 1.0810–1.0820 to establish short positions. Stop loss above 1.0860. The downside target is 1.0765 initially, then a test of 1.0700. Only a daily close above 1.0860 would shift the bias.


    • 2. XAUUSD: Deeply Oversold But No Reversal Yet

    Current Price: $4,342
    Direction: Neutral / Wait for Better Level
    Gold printed a low of $4,319 overnight, extending Friday‘s brutal selloff. The 4-hour chart has produced eight consecutive red candles, pushing the RSI to 23 — one of the most extreme oversold readings this year. While the trend is clearly bearish, chasing shorts here carries significant whipsaw risk.
  • Resistance: $4,378 (yesterday‘s rejected high), $4,402

  • Support: $4,319 (current low), $4,280

  • Strategy: No fresh entry recommended at current levels. For bears, wait for a corrective bounce to $4,370–$4,380 before re-engaging. For bulls, patience is key — allow price to form a clear bottom structure. First meaningful support lies near $4,280.


    • 3. GBPJPY: Bullish Flag Pattern Points Higher

    Current Price: 199.45
    Direction: Bullish / Buy Dips
    The cross remains one of the strongest trends in the G10 space. The 4-hour chart has formed a bullish flag following last week‘s sharp rally — a classic continuation pattern. The BoE’s hawkish hold contrasts with the BoJ‘s dovish stance, and political noise in Tokyo only adds to yen weakness.
  • Resistance: 200.35 (YTD high), 201.20 (extension target)

  • Support: 198.90 (flag lower trendline), 198.20

  • Strategy: Favor the long side as long as price holds above 198.80. Look to enter on dips toward 199.00–199.10. Stop loss below 198.70. A clean break above 200.35 could trigger acceleration toward 201.20. Avoid shorting this pair entirely.


    • 4. US500 (S&P 500): Technical Pullback Before CPI

    Current Price: 5,782
    Direction: Slightly Bearish / Short-term Fade
    Equity indices are showing subtle weakness as rising bond yields (10-year yield at 4.15%) pressure valuations. The daily chart shows a bearish engulfing candle from Friday, and futures are trading below the 20-EMA on the 4-hour timeframe. However, the bull trend remains intact on higher timeframes.
  • Resistance: 5,810, 5,845

  • Support: 5,755 (50-EMA 4H), 5,720

  • Strategy: Short-term traders can look for a move to 5,800–5,810 to initiate small shorts targeting 5,760, with a stop above 5,830. Medium-term investors should stay on the sidelines until CPI data prints on Wednesday. Volatility will likely contract today.


    • Reference: Price data sourced from Bloomberg Terminal and TradingView (as of 06:45 GMT, June 8, 2026). Economic calendar information from Forexfactory.