James Harwood's Trading Opportunities: Top 3 High-Conviction Setups for June 28, 2026
Let's cut straight through the noise. I have spent the last few hours with the latest MT4 data from 18:17 UTC+8 on June 28, and I want to share my personal take on the three highest-quality setups I am watching for the upcoming sessions. My analysis is anchored by a multi-timeframe EMA trend assessment, RSI momentum, and volatility using ATR. I will also outline why I am deliberately stepping away from a few other, more ambiguous-looking charts.
Data Source: This analysis is derived from the FxearQT: Complete Technical Data Analysis for 10 Forex Instruments (Data snapshot: 2026-06-28 18:17 UTC+8).
My Top 3 High-Conviction Setups
1. EURUSD (SELL): A Textbook Bearish Resumption Play
This is the setup that looks the cleanest to me. We are looking at a solid downtrend across the higher timeframes. The daily EMA20 at 1.15056 and the daily EMA60 at 1.15927 are in a clear bearish alignment. Price is well below both. To confirm this, the 4-hour chart shows a similar story, with the EMA60 sloping downwards.
The RSI reading of 29.20 on the daily chart is something I have analyzed carefully. Many see it as a "super bearish" indicator, but in my experience, it is a signal of deep momentum, not necessarily a reversal. It tells me sellers are in full control.
My Play:
My Personal Rule for This Trade: I will only execute this if I see price respecting the resistance around 1.1390. This setup looks like a potential resumption of the primary downtrend.
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2. USDJPY (BUY): Strong Momentum, One Level to Watch
The USDJPY is an absolute momentum beast right now. It is one of the few charts where I see a clear, unbroken trend. Daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour trends are all bullish, with price above all key EMAs. This is a robust signal.
The RSI at 71.55 is below the 75 threshold I use for Yen pairs, which tells me this uptrend has further room to run. I am not seeing any bearish divergence that would make me consider a short.
My Play:
My Personal Take: This is a classic pullback play. I would wait for a minor dip to the 161.560 area before entering. The trend remains my friend here.
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3. GOLD (SELL): A Defensive Play with a Tight Stop
The daily picture for Gold remains bearish, with the EMA20 at 4250.33 acting as a firm ceiling. The RSI is at 32.77 and just sitting above the oversold level, showing a persistent lack of buyer conviction.
My plan is to sell into a potential bounce toward the hourly resistance. I am not trying to catch the bottom here; I am looking for a continuation of the weekly downtrend. This is a strategy I have used many times in the past with success.
My Play:
My Exclusive Takes on GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and USDCAD
GBPUSD: The Downtrend Looks Tired
On the surface, the daily chart for GBPUSD is a straightforward "sell" recommendation. The MA's are bearish, and the price is below the daily cloud. However, looking closer, my experience suggests it is a high-risk chase.
The price is just a stone's throw away from a key psychological support at 1.3100. I am advising caution here. Selling now, when the price is so compressed, is a low-reward play in my opinion. A break below that psychological level might be a better trigger for new shorts, but as of now, I would be watching for a potential bounce.
AUDUSD: Caution is Key
The AUDUSD is flagged as a strong sell, with all timeframes aligning to the downside. My primary concern here is the spread of 91.0 points. From my experience, such a wide spread often precedes a squeeze or indicates a lack of real market interest. It simply makes the trade's cost prohibitive for a very tight risk-reward ratio. I would advise staying on the sidelines until the spread normalizes.
USDCAD: An Overbought Warning to Heed
USDCAD is the textbook definition of a momentum extreme. The daily RSI at a massive 79.83 is the highest of any of the major currencies I track, confirming a state of severe overbought conditions.
More importantly, I am seeing a clear bearish divergence between the price making a new high and the RSI not confirming it. While the trend is technically bullish, I think it is late to the party. I would be looking for a potential short on a break below a level like 1.4180, rather than buying at these elevated levels.
Key Market Drivers and My Outlook
From my perspective, the US Dollar's strength is the dominant force in the market. The primary catalysts for this are the increasing expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve under the leadership of Kevin Warsh. The strong employment data, with the market forecasting a NFP print of +113,000 for next week, adds significant fuel to this fire.
The Japanese Yen, meanwhile, remains under heavy selling pressure, as reflected in the massive net-short positioning and the widening US-Japan yield differentials. We are seeing the highest Dollar net long positions since the second Trump administration, and based on my reads, there is no sentiment extreme to suggest a reversal yet.
Disclaimer: I am James Harwood, a professional analyst. The views and strategies expressed here are my personal opinions and do not constitute direct financial advice. The foreign exchange and commodities markets are high-risk. You alone are responsible for your trading and investment decisions.
Original content first published on FXEAR.com. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.