Data Source Statement: Data sourced from FxearQT: Full FX 10-Symbol Technical Indicator Analysis, 2026-07-17 17:00.
It has been a volatile session. The dollar is holding firm, but the real story is beneath the surface—I have been digging through the FXearQT data feed, and three clear setups stand out as the highest conviction trades for today. Here is what I am looking at.
1. Gold (XAUUSD): Sticking with the Bearish Bias
Let us start with Gold. The system is giving a robust "sell" signal, and I agree with it.
My Take: The bearish alignment is textbook. The daily, 4H, and 1H EMAs are all in a bearish configuration. The recent price action saw Gold crash nearly 100 dollars to a low of 3969, and the recovery we are seeing now looks like a dead-cat bounce. The RSI is weak, and the bearish divergence means momentum is fading. The data suggests shorts should be added near resistance.
Risk Alert: The stop-loss is tight, with an ATR ratio of just 0.25. Given Gold's historical volatility, you could easily get stopped out on noise. This is a tactical play targeting the recent low.
2. USDJPY: The Trend is Your Friend
The data on USDJPY is screaming "buy the dip," and this is one of the cleanest signals I have seen today. This is a trend-following play.
My Take: The three timeframes are aligned—all bullish. We have a bullish divergence, and RSI is holding above 50. The central bank narrative supports this: the Bank of Japan remains dovish, while the Fed remains hawkish. The interest rate differential is the primary driver here.
Risk Alert: Apollo Global Management recently warned about the risk of a yen carry trade unwind. If that happens, we could see a rapid spike in the yen, which would be a major risk to this long position. I am keeping my stops tight.
3. EURGBP: A Strong Short Setup
This cross is deeply oversold but remains a strong short. This is a classic case of "the trend is your friend."
My Take: The three timeframes are aligned in a bearish move. Although the RSI is in oversold territory, this can persist in a strong downtrend. The European Central Bank is expected to be dovish, while the UK economy shows relative resilience. This is a momentum trade, and I am looking to ride it lower.
Risk Alert: Be aware of oversold conditions.
4. EURUSD: A Weaker Signal
The system is still leaning bearish, but the signal is not as strong as the ones above.
My Take: The data suggests the euro should be sold, but I am cautious. Price is already near the 1.1420 support zone. The Federal Reserve is hawkish, and this should keep the dollar supported. I do not want to chase this lower.
Risk Alert: The entry zone is tight. I am waiting for a better entry price.
5. USDCAD: Watching for a Bounce
The data shows support, but I am cautious.
My Take: I am watching for a bounce off support, but the weak RSI suggests it might drop a bit further first. I think oil will remain the key driver here.
6. USDCHF: Bullish but Cautious
The system is bullish on USDCHF.
My Take: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to tolerate a weaker franc. The setup looks good, but the stop-loss is tight.
Risk Alert: If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, the franc could see a safe-haven bid.
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Disclaimer: This analysis represents the personal views of James Harwood and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
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