Summary: James Harwood selects high-conviction trades for August 17, 2026. He favors shorting USDJPY and EURGBP, buying GBPUSD and NZDUSD, while cautioning that Gold and BTCUSD require patience ahead of the FOMC minutes.




FXEAR Special: James Harwood's Trading Opportunity Analysis for August 17, 2026



Data Source: FxearQT: Complete 10-Currency Technical Analysis, 2026-08-17 10:00.

It's Monday, August 17, and the market is gearing up for a week packed with high-impact events. The FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole symposium are on the horizon. Before we get into the noise, I've run my eye over the technicals and order flow to pick out the most promising setups.

I'm seeing a few solid opportunities, but also some that I'm choosing to skip. Let's get into it.

The Best Setups: Short USDJPY & EURGBP, Long GBPUSD & NZDUSD



1. GBPUSD – Long (Most Conviction)



The data is overwhelmingly bullish for sterling. On the daily, 4H and 1H timeframes, all EMAs are in a bullish alignment, and the RSI is a healthy 62.45 – strong, but not overbought. What I really like is the bullish divergence: price made a lower low, but RSI did not. This is a classic sign of exhaustion.

  • Current Price (Bid): 1.35454

  • Spread: 25 pips

  • Daily Trend: Bullish

  • Daily RSI: 62.45 (Bullish)

  • Divergence: Bullish Divergence

  • ATR (14): 659 pips

  • Dist to 4H High (1.35606): 151 pips (Very Close)

  • Recommended Direction: Long


    • Entry, Stop & Take Profit:
  • Entry: 1.35272 – I'm looking to enter at the lower end of the zone, aligned with the Fibonacci 0.382 level.

  • Stop Loss: 1.34514 (757 pips)

  • Take Profit: 1.36409 (1,136 pips)

  • Risk/Reward: 1.50 : 1


    • The James Harwood View: The consensus is bullish and I'm fully aligned. The momentum here is undeniable. The CPI report on Wednesday is the only potential speed bump. If it comes in hot, this pair is off to the races.

    2. NZDUSD – Long (Strong Setup)



    This is another triple-bullish setup that I really like. The daily, 4H and 1H are all pointing higher, and the 4H RSI is at 59.96. The technical picture is clean. There's a bullish divergence, and, importantly, the Fibonacci 0.382 level at 0.58676 is overlapping with the 4H EMA60, making it a very strong support zone.

  • Current Price (Bid): 0.58887

  • Spread: 28 pips

  • Daily Trend: Bullish

  • Daily RSI: 59.96 (Bullish)

  • Divergence: Bullish Divergence

  • ATR (14): 444 pips

  • Dist to 4H High (0.58971): 83 pips (Very Close)

  • Recommended Direction: Long


    • Entry, Stop & Take Profit:
  • Entry: 0.58754 – Buying the lower end of the zone.

  • Stop Loss: 0.58243 (511 pips)

  • Take Profit: 0.59520 (766 pips)

  • Risk/Reward: 1.50 : 1


    • The James Harwood View: The report's bullish view matches my own. This is a clean, momentum-driven long trade. The support zone is very clear, and I think it's a great risk/reward opportunity.

    3. USDJPY – Short (High Conviction)



    This is where things get interesting. All three major timeframes – daily, 4H and 1H – are bearish. The daily RSI is at 43.20, confirming a bearish bias. The recent high in price is not matched by a new high in the RSI. This bearish divergence is a strong sign that the rally is losing steam.

  • Current Price (Bid): 159.210

  • Spread: 26 pips

  • Daily Trend: Bearish

  • Daily RSI: 43.20 (Bearish)

  • Divergence: Bearish Divergence

  • ATR (14): 1,565 pips (Elevated Volatility)

  • Dist to 4H High (159.553): 342 pips (Very Close)

  • Recommended Direction: Short


    • Entry, Stop & Take Profit:
  • Entry: 159.176 – Selling the resistance zone.

  • Stop Loss: 161.337 (2,160 pips)

  • Take Profit: 155.934 (3,241 pips)

  • Risk/Reward: 1.50 : 1


    • The James Harwood View: I'm with the report here. The strength of the bearish trend is clear. While Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have warned that the carry trade is far from over, the technicals show this pair is more likely to test lower levels like 158 or 155 than re-test 162.

    4. EURGBP – Short (Technically Strong)



    This is a textbook bearish setup. The pair is trading below its 200-day, 60-day and 20-day moving averages, and the RSI is below 50. It's a clean downtrend.

  • Current Price (Bid): 0.85428

  • Spread: 24 pips

  • Daily Trend: Bearish

  • Daily RSI: 47.70 (Bearish)

  • Divergence: Bearish Divergence

  • ATR (14): 212 pips

  • Dist to 4H High (0.85517): 88 pips (Very Close)

  • Recommended Direction: Short


    • Entry, Stop & Take Profit:
  • Entry: 0.85435 – Selling at the Fibonacci 0.382 resistance.

  • Stop Loss: 0.85655 (220 pips)

  • Take Profit: 0.85104 (330 pips)

  • Risk/Reward: 1.50 : 1


    • The James Harwood View: The report is right to be short. But I'd caution that the bearish divergence suggests the momentum is slowing down. This could be a scalp rather than a long-term hold, so be ready to take profits quickly.

    A Note of Caution: Gold (XAUUSD) & BTCUSD



    5. Gold (XAUUSD) – Wait and See



    The technical picture here is messy. We have a bearish daily trend, but a bullish 4H trend and a bearish 1H. The report suggests waiting for a catalyst, which I agree with. The daily RSI is at 63.41. It's bullish, but not overbought.

  • Current Price (Bid): $4,370.43

  • Spread: 66 pips

  • Daily Trend: Bearish

  • Daily RSI: 63.41 (Bullish)

  • Divergence: Bullish Divergence

  • ATR (14): 9,691 pips

  • Dist to 4H Low ($4,310.84): 5,959 pips (Close)

  • Recommended Direction: Wait and See


    • The James Harwood View: I agree with the wait-and-see approach. The bullish divergence on the daily is a strong signal, but without a clear breakout from this range, I'd be risking a whipsaw.

    6. BTCUSD – Short (But Stop-Loss is Too Tight)



    All three timeframes are bearish, and the trend strength is rated as "extremely strong." The RSI is at 43.32. This is a clear bearish trend.

  • Current Price (Bid): $62,880.45

  • Spread: 4,000 pips

  • Daily Trend: Bearish

  • Daily RSI: 43.32 (Bearish)

  • Divergence: No Divergence

  • ATR (14): 101,667 pips

  • Dist to 4H Low ($62,514.95): 36,550 pips (Very Close)

  • Recommended Direction: Short (with caution)


    • Entry, Stop & Take Profit:
  • Entry: $62,961.78

  • Stop Loss: $63,546.37 (58,459 pips)

  • Take Profit: $62,084.90 (87,688 pips)

  • Risk/Reward: 1.50 : 1


    • The James Harwood View: I'm bearish on BTC and agree with the report's direction. However, the stop-loss at $63,546 is far too tight given the ATR. You'll likely get stopped out. I'd suggest scaling in or widening the stop to give the trade some room to breathe.

    My Three 'Against the Crowd' Thoughts



  • <strong>USDCAD (Wait and See vs. Short):</strong> The RSI is severely oversold at 29.30. The report is cautious, and I agree. In a market this oversold, shorting is a fool's errand. I'm waiting for a bounce to get a better price.


  • <strong>USDCHF (Cautious Long vs. Strong Long):</strong> The triple-bullish setup looks great. But I'm concerned about the bearish divergence. The price made a new high, but the RSI did not. I'm still leaning long, but I'd be a lot more cautious about my position size.


  • <strong>Gold (Wait and See vs. Strong Bullish):</strong> The reports are very bullish on Gold, but I'm leaning more 'wait and see'. The daily and 1H charts are at odds, and the $4,450 level is a massive wall of resistance. I'm waiting for a close above $4,400 before I'd even consider entering a long position.


    • ---
    Disclaimer: The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading and investing carry a high level of risk, and you could lose more than your initial investment. You should consider your own financial situation and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. The views expressed are my own and do not reflect the views of any affiliated entity.

    Source: FxearQT: Complete 10-Currency Technical Analysis, 2026-08-17 10:00.

    Originally published on FXEAR.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

    ---