FXEAR Exclusive James Harwood Today's Trading Opportunities: USDJPY Short and USDCHF Long Lead High-Conviction Signals
Data source: FxearQT Complete Forex 10-Instrument Technical Analysis, 2026-06-23 01:30
I spent the better part of this session cross-checking every number in the technical report against the price feed, and two setups really stand out to me: USDJPY short and USDCHF long. Let me walk through the highest-quality signals first, then I'll share a few places where I disagree with the report's surface conclusions.
Highest-Conviction Signal: USDJPY Short
| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Current Price (Bid) | 153.488 |
| Spread | 37.0 pips |
| Daily Trend | Bearish (EMA20
| Divergence | Bottom divergence |
| Daily ATR(14) | 1288 pips |
| Distance to 4H High | 1169 pips (close, 0.5-1.0x ATR) |
| Distance to 4H Low | 562 pips (very close, <0.5x ATR) |
| Recommended Direction | Short |
| Entry | 153.587 |
| Stop Loss | 155.365 (1778 pips) |
| Take Profit | 150.919 (2668 pips) |
| Risk-Reward Ratio | 1.50:1 |
The BoJ meets on September 17-18, and the Nikkei QUICK survey shows 30 out of 30 BoJ watchers expect a hike to 1.25%. That is as close to a certainty as you get in central banking. RBC also flagged that the BoJ may hike or intervene in coming weeks. CFTC data shows JPY net shorts at 92,227 contracts, up 28,929 week-on-week — crowded, and crowded shorts into a 100% consensus hike is exactly the kind of setup that produces violent unwinds. The ATR ratio here is 1.38, which is the only "normal" stop placement among the ten instruments. Entry at 153.587 sits right at the Fib 0.618 level (153.587), which I like.
The BoJ hike is fully priced, but Ueda's press conference wording is the real risk. If he hints at consecutive hikes, 152 breaks fast.
Second Signal: USDCHF Long
| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Current Price (Bid) | 0.81619 |
| Spread | 50.0 pips |
| Daily Trend | Bullish (EMA20>EMA60) |
| Daily RSI(14) | 56.33, bullish |
| Divergence | Bottom divergence |
| Daily ATR(14) | 489 pips |
| Distance to 4H High | 73 pips (very close, <0.5x ATR) |
| Recommended Direction | Long |
| Entry | 0.81472 |
| Stop Loss | 0.80909 (563 pips) |
| Take Profit | 0.82317 (845 pips) |
| Risk-Reward Ratio | 1.50:1 |
This is the only instrument in the report with all three timeframes aligned bullish (Daily, 4H, 1H), and trend strength is classified as "strong." The USD/CHF is also on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. RSI at 56.33 with a bottom divergence is constructive. My one caveat: the ATR ratio is 1.15, which the report flags as "stop too narrow," and I agree — 563 pips against a 489-pip ATR is tight. I would consider widening the stop to around 0.8075 if you want breathing room.
Gold (XAUUSD) Long — But I'm Not Fully Convinced
| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Current Price (Bid) | 4348.92 |
| Spread | 63.0 pips |
| Daily Trend | Bullish |
| Daily RSI(14) | 45.30, normal pullback |
| Divergence | None |
| Daily ATR(14) | 10588 pips |
| Distance to Fib 0.618 | 294 pips (very close) |
| Recommended Direction | Long |
| Entry | 4345.97 |
| Stop Loss | 4320.97 (2500 pips) |
| Take Profit | 4383.47 (3750 pips) |
| Risk-Reward Ratio | 1.50:1 |
Gold bounced from 4290 to above 4360 after the CPI print, even though the Fed hike probability jumped to 86-90%. The World Gold Council has been noting persistent central bank buying, and Goldman Sachs upgraded gold to overweight with a 12-month target of $5,275. TD Securities says any short-term weakness should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
But here's where I part ways with the report: the ATR ratio here is 0.24. That is not a stop loss, that is a rounding error. A 2,500-pip stop against a 10,588-pip daily ATR means you will be stopped out by noise before the trade ever has a chance to work. The report itself notes "Gold special" and caps the stop at 2500 pips, but I would either (a) size down dramatically and use a wider stop, or (b) wait for a pullback closer to 4,300 where the risk-reward actually makes sense. The bullish narrative is sound — geopolitical tension, oil above $100, central bank demand — but this specific entry is poorly structured.
EURUSD — Report Says Long, I Say Wait
| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Current Price (Bid) | 1.15969 |
| Spread | 33.0 pips |
| Daily Trend | Bullish |
| Daily RSI(14) | 53.65, bullish |
| Divergence | Top divergence |
| Daily ATR(14) | 413 pips |
| Distance to Fib 0.618 | 36 pips (very close) |
| Recommended Direction | Long |
| Entry | 1.16006 |
| Stop Loss | 1.15530 (476 pips) |
| Take Profit | 1.16719 (713 pips) |
| Risk-Reward Ratio | 1.50:1 |
The report recommends long, but I'm cautious. There is a top divergence on the daily chart — price made a new high but RSI did not. The ECB policy path is unclear, and BofA has flagged that European bond investors are "regretting the chase" with duration exposure at historic divergence from their views. The ATR ratio is 1.15, again too narrow. If you must take this, I'd want to see a daily close above 1.1620 before committing.
GBPUSD — Retail Contrarian Signal vs. Top Divergence
| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Current Price (Bid) | 1.35239 |
| Spread | 47.0 pips |
| Daily Trend | Bullish |
| Daily RSI(14) | 48.26, weak |
| Divergence | Top divergence |
| Daily ATR(14) | 501 pips |
| Distance to Fib 0.382 | 72 pips (very close) |
| Recommended Direction | Long |
| Entry | 1.35091 |
| Stop Loss | 1.34514 (577 pips) |
| Take Profit | 1.35956 (865 pips) |
| Risk-Reward Ratio | 1.50:1 |
The retail short ratio is 81%, which triggers the contrarian long signal per the sentiment rules. But there's also a top divergence on the daily. The BoE is expected to hold at 3.75% on September 17 with a 6-3 vote. I find this setup conflicted — the contrarian signal is real, but top divergence plus a weak RSI at 48.26 tells me the upside is limited. I'd pass.
AUDUSD — RBA Hike Expectations vs. FOMC Pressure
| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Current Price (Bid) | 0.71693 |
| Spread | 33.0 pips |
| Daily Trend | Bullish |
| Daily RSI(14) | 53.67, bullish |
| Divergence | Top divergence |
| Daily ATR(14) | 402 pips |
| Distance to Fib 0.618 | 128 pips (very close) |
| Recommended Direction | Long |
| Entry | 0.71572 |
| Stop Loss | 0.71109 (463 pips) |
| Take Profit | 0.72267 (695 pips) |
| Risk-Reward Ratio | 1.50:1 |
RBA hike probability for September 29 is 71.2%, and Goldman moved its forecast from November to September. That's supportive. But the top divergence and the FOMC hike risk on September 16 create a two-sided risk. ATR ratio 1.15, stop too narrow again.
USDCAD — Short Bias but Crowded
| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Current Price (Bid) | 1.38699 |
| Spread | 40.0 pips |
| Daily Trend | Bearish |
| Daily RSI(14) | 44.86, weak |
| Divergence | None |
| Daily ATR(14) | 636 pips |
| Distance to 4H High | 127 pips (very close) |
| Recommended Direction | Short |
| Entry | 1.38890 |
| Stop Loss | 1.39622 (732 pips) |
| Take Profit | 1.37792 (1098 pips) |
| Risk-Reward Ratio | 1.50:1 |
CFTC CAD net shorts are at 108,143 contracts — 79.9% short ratio, the most crowded short in the entire report. The BoC held at 2.25% but warned on inflation upside. Oil above $100 supports CAD. I don't like chasing a short into such a crowded position.
NZDUSD — Watch Only
| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Current Price (Bid) | 0.58109 |
| Spread | 46.0 pips |
| Daily Trend | Bullish |
| Daily RSI(14) | 36.40, weak |
| Divergence | Top divergence |
| Daily ATR(14) | 445 pips |
| Recommended Direction | Watch |
The report says watch, and I agree. Daily bullish but 4H and 1H bearish, top divergence, RBNZ dovish hike on September 2. No edge here.
EURGBP — Watch Only
| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Current Price (Bid) | 0.85727 |
| Spread | 38.0 pips |
| Daily Trend | Bearish |
| Daily RSI(14) | 59.36, bullish |
| Divergence | Bottom divergence |
| Daily ATR(14) | 212 pips |
| Recommended Direction | Watch |
Conflicted signals across all three timeframes. BoE hold is priced in. Stay out.
BTCUSD — Cautiously Long
| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Current Price (Bid) | 77311.15 |
| Spread | 4000.0 pips |
| Daily Trend | Bullish |
| Daily RSI(14) | 55.96, bullish |
| Divergence | Bottom divergence |
| Daily ATR(14) | 217770 pips |
| Distance to Fib 0.618 | 19272 pips (very close) |
| Recommended Direction | Long |
| Entry | 77136.93 |
| Stop Loss | 75884.75 (125217 pips) |
| Take Profit | 79015.20 (187828 pips) |
| Risk-Reward Ratio | 1.50:1 |
BTC rebounded from 76,000 to above 78,000 after CPI on short covering. ETF inflows were $986.9 million for the week ending September 5. But the 50-day EMA has broken below the 200-day EMA, and QCP Capital warns buyers have little reason for optimism. The ATR ratio is 0.58 — too narrow. I'd watch 76,500 as the line in the sand.
Final Thoughts
The two setups I would actually trade are USDJPY short at 153.587 and USDCHF long at 0.81472. Both have clean alignment, reasonable stop placement (ATR ratios of 1.38 and 1.15 respectively), and fundamental backing. Everything else either has a structural problem with the stop (gold, BTC) or conflicting signals (EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURGBP). USDCAD short is crowded — I'd rather wait for a pullback.
Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion based on the technical report and publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Forex trading carries significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
Source: FxearQT Complete Forex 10-Instrument Technical Analysis, 2026-06-23 01:30.
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